2025 Predictions - #62

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Last week, we shared that we got 75% of our 2024 predictions correct!

This is what we think is coming in the new year…

2025 Predictions TL;DR

1. Google Search will lose market share to 75%, down from 88%.

2. AI responses will be involved in >50% of Google queries.

3. Content-focused affiliates will not die; they will shift.

4. The value of authentic, human-trusted content will only increase, and affiliate and influencer marketing investments will continue to grow.

5. Video and Audio formats will continue to grow and perform well. Long live YouTube, Shorts, Reels, and Pods!

6. TikTok ban will take effect.

7. Smartphones and social media for kids will decline as parents and schools change policy.

8. The power of nostalgia will only grow.

9. Richness will thrive over minimalist aesthetics

10. B2B SaaS: Integrates AI, adopts usage pricing models, and affiliate marketing for SaaS grows 30%!

11. We will finally get flying cars

12. VC investment will grow by 25%

13. The IPO market will grow by 75%

14. Telsa will hit $500

15. BTC will hit $130,000

16. Palantir will hit $100

17. Texas Longhorns will win the National Championship

18. Kansas City Chiefs will win the Super Bowl.

19. SF Giants will become relevant again, contending in 2025

20. The biggest winners in performance marketing will be:

    1. YouTube

    2. Perplexity

    3. Connected TV

    4. An actively managed, well-diversified affiliate and influencer program (B2B SaaS especially).

2025 Predictions Deeper Dive…

🔍️ Google Algo

More change is coming to Google's algorithm and the broader search landscape, driven by advancements in AI, evolving user behavior, and increased competition among search platforms.

1. AI and Machine Learning Dominate Search

• Google’s AI advancements will reduce reliance on keyword-based strategies.

• Personalization will increase as AI tailors search results based on user behavior and preferences.

• Zero-click searches will rise due to AI-generated summaries, making it harder for brands to drive traffic from organic searches.

• According to ongoing studies, AI-generated content constitutes 18.50% of Google Search results as of November 2024. This marks the highest level recorded since tracking began, reflecting a steady increase throughout the year.

• AI Overviews (AIOs): AIOs, which are generative AI summaries displayed above organic search results for certain queries, appear in 4.6% of desktop keywords and 3.9% of mobile keywords as of December 2024.

• We estimate that in 2025, AIOs are anticipated to increase their presence across search results to reach over 50% of all queries, driven by Google's refinement of AI models and user adoption trends.

As a bonus, check out Google’s latest AI experiments…

2. Content Quality and E-E-A-T Gain Importance

• EEAT: Expertise, Experience, Authoritativeness, and Trustworthiness. Google will continue to prioritize content demonstrating expertise, experience, authoritativeness, and trustworthiness (E-E-A-T), particularly in response to the proliferation of low-quality AI-generated content.

• This is yet again why we are 100% focused on Trust - more to come on that 😀 

• Human-centered, original insights will be critical for standing out amidst AI noise. Content quality will outweigh quantity.

• This came up in my discussion with Udi Ledergor of Gong: HUMANS will win. We will need human-centered creativity, strategy, writing, and thinking, NOT just AI. An overreliance on AI when AI becomes easier and AI content proliferates.

• Affiliate content monetization will not die but shift as publishers respond and improve quality. Even if content affiliate traffic decreases further, there will be plenty of opportunities with winners in the affiliate space to diversify and grow your affiliate program.

3. Diversification Beyond Google

• Platforms like TikTok and YouTube and emerging AI-driven search engines such as Bing, SearchGPT, and Perplexity are becoming essential traffic sources as users explore alternatives to Google.

• SEOs and Performance Marketers must optimize for multiple platforms and formats, including video, voice, and pods.

• Affiliate and Influencer are leading this charge - hence our focus!

  • Affiliate is not a channel but a multi-channel lever.

  • Affiliate is one of the best places to invest outside Meta and Google.

  • Affiliate can access content, email, coupons/deals, Card-Linked Offers/finance apps, loyalty sites, audio, connected TV, influencers, and even Google and Meta via media buyers on a CPA.

• Perplexity will be the biggest winner of the AI Chat Search tools.

📺️ & 🎧️ Visual & Audio Content Take Center Stage

Both video and audio will continue to grow and supplant other forms of media in 2025.

Replacement of Traditional Media: Podcasts are displacing other forms of media. For example, 28% of listeners report watching less TV, and 24% spend less time on social media since they began listening to podcasts.

This will also be seen with the interaction of AI and prompts. No one wants to type if they don’t have to.

This is partly due to the shift from traditional and corporate media to individual, authentic voices.

The Podcast audience in the US will grow to 200M in 2025, up from 160M in 2024.

• Speaking with AI Chat and agents will continue to increase. Perplexity’s integration is one of the better user experiences.

• Notebook LLM is creating a magical product that allows people to make podcasts from nothing, and adoption of Notebook LLM will surge.

• Video content optimization is expected to be more significant in rankings as search engines integrate more multimedia elements into results. See the Google Veo-2 example above.

• Perplexity is leaning into the value of bringing visual aesthetics to their branding and improved visual queues to a very text-focused experience (AI Chat).

• Check out the way they display their results here:

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🛍️ TikTok Will Be Banned

• This is already in progress, initiated in April 2024 under the Biden administration and taking effect Jan 19, 2025.

• TikTok has already appealed to the Supreme Court, and the high court will hear TikTok’s argument.

• If the Supreme Court does not intervene, the ban will take effect Jan 19, 2025

• The ban would prohibit distribution and app updates

• The app will still be available within the app store for some time but will not be updated, degrading the user experience.

• After the ban, new users won’t be able to download TikTok from Apple’s App Store or Google Play.

• Google and Apple will eventually cave to government pressure to remove the app.

• ByteDance could sell TikTok to a non-Chinese entity.

• I don’t see Bytedance and the Chinese government giving the greatest spying tool algorithm to a US company. Could a third party or US technical team reverse engineer the algorithm as part of the due diligence process?

• While I don’t think TikTok will disappear, the legislative scrutiny and concerns will lead to ambiguity and make it difficult for the app to retain talent and users, boost engagement, and thrive in the US long term.

• If TikTok becomes inaccessible, users are expected to migrate to alternative platforms like Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, and Snap.

• I see a US entity buying it for a price but don’t see the algo fully being shared with the buyer.

📊 Media Mix Modeling (MMM) and Incrementality

MMM, attribution, and incrementality solutions will improve, adoption will grow, and money, time, and effort will flow into this work.

Education will also improve. RBL leads with select partners like Northbeam and enables brands to realize when it makes sense to engage with incrementality testing and when it does not. There will be more clarity and improved definitions.

If you ask me, there is too much talk about this, insufficient clarity, and insufficient action to improve incrementality. Along with trusted partners and data scientists, we intend to improve this and its understanding of our industry.

It’s been a pleasure serving as part of the PMA Measurements and Insights Counsel to help with this. Haus, Recast, and Northbeam will continue to thrive.

☎️ Nostalgia

The power of nostalgia and the yearning for a more analog era are real. Some examples:

• Kith Collaborations: Kith has successfully tapped into nostalgia by partnering with brands like Coca-Cola, BMW, Disney, and vintage cartoon franchises. These collaborations blend retro aesthetics with modern streetwear, creating a sense of familiarity while appealing to younger audiences.

• Y2K Revival: Brands such as Juicy Couture and Ganni (e.g., their collaboration) have embraced the resurgence of early 2000s fashion trends, such as velour tracksuits and low-rise jeans. These styles evoke memories of the era while being updated for contemporary tastes.

• Adidas Samba: Adidas reintroduced its iconic Samba sneaker, initially launched in the 1950s, blending nostalgia with modern design through collaborations with figures like Bad Bunny and Messi.

  • This strategy has made the Samba a cultural "it shoe," driving significant sales growth.

• Air Jordan brand domination:

  • The Air Jordan brand generated $6.6 billion in revenue in 2023—a 29.4% increase from the previous year and a 135% growth since 2016.

  • The Air Jordan brand taps into nostalgia by celebrating Michael Jordan's legacy as one of the greatest basketball players of all time.

  

  • Released in 1985, its bold design and marketing campaign capitalized on NBA controversies, making the shoes a symbol of individuality and anti-establishment values.

  • The brand continues to resonate across generations, with 34% of Gen Z sneaker owners in the U.S. owning Jordans, reflecting its cross-generational appeal.

• Perplexity Branding

Prediction: Nostalgia and brands and influencers that tap into it effectively will continue to win and grow. This theme will only gain in popularity. Let me know when AI can create an ad campaign that nails the ethos of the 2000s.

🫶 Richness

Richness and lived in colorful, earthy looks are coming back after many years of sleek, clean, white, minimalist design. I think we will see more of this.

📱No Smartphones & 🤳 Social Media for Kids

The book Anxious Generation by Jonathan Haidt highlighted the need to limit smartphone use for kids under 18, given that their brains are not fully developed yet.

Haidt proposes four key reforms to address these issues:

1. No smartphones before high school: Children should only use basic phones to limit internet access.

2. No social media before age 16: Delaying social media use can protect adolescents during their most vulnerable developmental years.

3. Phone-free schools: Schools should enforce policies restricting phone use daily to foster in-person interaction and focus on academics.

4. More free play and independence: Encouraging unstructured, unsupervised play helps children develop resilience, social skills, and problem-solving abilities.

Given the growing evidence that it is harmful, several schools are already implementing no-phone rules to support parents and kids.

• The Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD), the largest in the U.S., is implementing "phone-free school days" starting in 2025

• Schools use locked pouches or lockers to store phones during the day, allowing students to focus on academics and social interactions.

• Increased adoption of "dumb phones" or flip phones for younger children

• Parental coalitions where families collectively agree to delay giving their children smartphones until high school

• CA legislature is responding to Haidt’s book as well as CA Assembly Bill 3216, which aims to enforce statewide restrictions on smartphone use in schools by 2026

I discussed it on The Startup Dad podcast with Adam Fishman.

I feel for parents raising kids older than our toddlers, as they were not equipped with as much information as we have now.

I expect this trend to set boundaries to benefit and protect kids to continue.

💼 B2B SaaS

• Generative AI Integration: B2B SaaS tools that do not adapt and improve will be culled from the herd. AI will no longer be seen as an add-on; it will be a “must-have” feature in B2B SaaS tools.

  • We recently switched from Asana to Notion partially for this reason.

  • I expect significant improvements in efficiency for the customer service and sales processes.

• Subscription Fatigue Solutions: To combat subscription fatigue, SaaS firms will adopt freemium pricing models, bundled services, and regular feature updates to retain customers.

  • Usage-based pricing models (made famous by Slack) will increase.

• B2B Partner Marketing will continue to be the fastest-growing sector in affiliate marketing.

  • Some estimate consumer affiliate marketing will continue to grow at a CAGR of 10%. I estimate that B2B SaaS affiliate marketing will hit a CAGR of 30%! 

• Profitability over hyper-growth and scale at high cost will continue

🛸 Flying Cars

• Joby Aviation is targeting 2025 for the initial rollout of its eVTOL air taxi service.

• The company has made substantial progress in manufacturing and regulatory approvals, including completing four of five stages of FAA-type certification.

💸 Significant Boost in VC funding and IPOs

VC funding will increase 25% year over year in 2025 with a continued emphasis on AI.

IPOs will increase by 75% in 2025

Stripe, Databricks, SpaceX, Discord, Chime, Klarna, Reliance Jio, and Instacart will go public.

🤝 Trust & Authenticity Wins over Attention

• Authenticity over attention

• Trust over transactions

This may be the most significant change we are witnessing, among many others, in technology, growth, media, and business.

A tectonic shift is taking place, and people are no longer as trusting in brands, media, government, authority, and, sadly, many businesses. At least not like they used to!

This downward trend has led to a “Trust Gap,” which requires a new way of thinking about communication and marketing.

If you are not fully tapping into affiliates, influencers, and creators to get individual authentic voices to talk about your brand, then you are doing it wrong.

🚋 Telsa will hit $500

🏦 BTC will hit $130,000

🤖 Palantir will hit $100

🏅 Sports Ball

🤘 Texas Longhorns will win the 🏈 NCAA National Championship

🏈 Super Bowl - The Kansas City Chiefs will win their third Super Bowl in a row, becoming the first team in the Super Bowl era of NFL history to do so.

⚾️ Buster Posey will turn the SF Giants into contenders.

🪦 Rest In Peace, Ricky Henderson, the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history and the stolen base king. One of the most accomplished and entertaining athletes of our generation!

See you in 2025!

Tye