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Executive Summary

In the last issue, we outlined predictions 1-7 in our hit list of 16 bets for 2026!

1. In person events (IRL = In Real Life) will become even more important and only increase in attendance and popularity.

2. People will opt out of tech and AI more than ever.

3. Hard assets will continue to increase in value.

4. Tech sector profit/EPS continues to perform.

5. GDP will grow 5.5%

6. IPOs will increase by 28%

7. Affiliate marketing will grow 18% in 2026

Without further ado, here are predictions 8-16, and we think is coming, and how to prepare for it…

8)Affiliate will make up 9% of spend for consumer brands

Affiliate and partner marketing makes up a reasonable percent of a consumer brands marketing investment. This will only continue.

But Why?

• Delivers trust not just ads

• De-risks marketing beyond platforms: Meta, Google, TikTok, Amazon, and “Display.”

• Highly efficient (especially when compared to other paid media mentioned above)

• Enables access to Connected TV, podcasts, media, YouTube, Reddit, and review sites

9) Affiliate will make up 14% of spend for B2B SaaS brands (dominated by PLG, product lead growth)

Affiliate and partner marketing makes up a reasonable percent of a consumer brands marketing investment.

For SaaS, that can be even larger. Part of this is due to the fact that the affiliate model can support:

• Technical Integrations

• Value Added Resellers

• Agencies

As well as the affiliate and partner types we often discuss and recommend such as:

• Content: Media

• Content: Reviews

• Content: Communities of Interest: Think online or in person event or conference, start up incubator or co-working space and more!

• Podcast/Audio

• Newsletter: Substack / Beehiiv

• YouTube

• Reddit

10) SaaS will be the fastest growing vertical in affiliate marketing

SaaS continue to be the fastest growing vertical in Affiliate Partner and Influencer marketing. Why this vertical over consumer?

• Larger Margins

• Improved Moats

• Those that leverage AI effectively can improve customer outcomes further

• The move to a usage or outcome based model like Slack did could assuage cost per seat / concerns from their customers

• Partners can earn in perpetuity making it a very rich proposition for quality brand-partner agreements

11) SaaS will grow, not die

• Even with AI and tools like Claude Code, SaaS revenue is still likely to grow on the order of ~15% next year—slower than peak years, but solid for a “mature” category.

• The edge isn’t just code; it’s distribution, support, trust, and ecosystems that are very hard to replicate quickly.

  

  The current fear in SaaS is an overcorrection in the market.

• Salesforce is the playbook: a deep talent and partner ecosystem, AppExchange as a default distribution rail, strategic acquisitions (Slack, Tableau, MuleSoft), and now data + AI (Einstein, Agentforce) that make ripping it out increasingly irrational.

• The current “SaaS‑pocalypse” narrative looks more like an overcorrection than a structural collapse; durable platforms with strong partner networks and data moats will keep compounding.

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12) MMM adoption increases across Consumer and B2B SaaS

More businesses in both Consumer and SaaS will utilize Media Mix Modeling and Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) to more accurately measure the impact of their marketing channels, partners and campaigns.

We have collaborated with most of the MMM solutions providers in the space and have hosted Recast and Paramark on the Always Be Testing podcast.

A September 2024 Supermetrics/eMarketer datapoint puts global MMM usage at about 49% of marketers (meaning roughly half say they currently use MMM in some form).

Among US marketers spending $500k+ per year on digital, about 61% say improving MMM is their No. 1 measurement‑upgrade priority (eMarketer)

B2B SaaS marketers (mid‑market and up): more like 20–35% are actively running MMM or MMM‑style modeling, with another chunk piloting or planning.

This will increase confidence and validity toward content and levers that actually work and are incremental, meaning that without them the business would not have received the sale / lead / visitor / customer.

13) Tech Start Up and PE investment

Tech startup and PE/VC investment should rise ~25% in 2026, with a disproportionate share flowing into AI‑native and AI‑enabled software.

• Global venture funding has already rebounded to roughly the third‑highest year on record, with 2025 up about 30% versus 2024 and 2026 expected to grow again.

• A disproportionate share of that capital is chasing AI‑native and AI‑enabled software, which means more funded startups that must show efficient, measurable growth.

• That’s where partner and affiliate programs win: performance‑tied, capital‑light distribution that helps these companies turn AI hype and fresh funding into pipeline, revenue, and proof of product‑market fit without bloating sales and paid media.

  • Having some growth/marketing/paid media up, running and returning helps validate but we can look under the hood to confirm and provide a sound recommendation.

14) Affiliates Will Become Agents and Agents Will Become Affiliates

• AI is already automating core affiliate tasks (prospecting, content creation), letting a single operator run dozens of “always-on” campaigns in parallel.

• Agent frameworks now plug directly into affiliate networks and analytics via APIs, enabling agents to choose offers, optimize funnels, and shift in real time less human intervention.

• Coming soon: More Autonomous “agent-run” affiliate businesses that identify niches, launch sites, create content, and manage finances with humans providing capital and direction, not day‑to‑day execution.

• For not too distant future SaaS partner leaders, this means your top “partners” may increasingly be agent‑augmented teams or fully agentic entities, so program design, payouts, and policies must assume 24/7, machine‑driven testing and arbitrage.

15) Open AI Will Lose Marketshare

• OpenAI still leads, but its enterprise share has already fallen toward roughly a quarter of the market as Anthropic and others surge, indicating a structurally multi‑player landscape.

• Anthropic has grown its enterprise footprint to around a third of accounts in some surveys and is on a steep ARR trajectory, closing the revenue gap with OpenAI by focusing on safety and enterprise‑grade features.

• On the consumer side, ChatGPT’s app share has dropped from about 69% to near 45% as Google Gemini and other assistants gain usage, proving users are willing to switch when alternatives are good enough or better integrated.​

• Analysts now frame the race as segment‑based: OpenAI strongest in broad consumer and early developer mindshare, Anthropic in enterprise trust, and Google in distribution via Gemini inside its existing products.

16) YouTube, Communities of Interest, and ConnectedTV are your B2B SaaS partner type winners of 2026

In true Olympic spirit, our Gold, Silver and Bronze partner medalists for B2B SaaS partner programs..

🥇 The highest-growing B2B SaaS partner surface in 2026 will be YouTube-first creators who also own a newsletter and community.

🥈 The most important channel type for partner-led growth in 2026 will be niche Communities of Interest — from Slack groups to incubators to micro-conferences — not broad, generic media.

🥉 Connected TV will quietly become the breakout ‘brand + performance’ partner layer for B2B, as attribution and AI optimization make CTV measurable enough to plug into partner deals.

That’s All Folks

Despite a ton of change, uncertainty and speed, things will continue to improve and we are here for it!

2026 won’t be defined by a SaaS collapse; it will be defined by who learns fastest. AI agents, capital, and creators are all shifting in your favor if you’re building real products, real ecosystems, and real partner flywheels.

The theme across all 16 predictions is simple: the teams that lean into partners, adopt and test models and agents, YouTube and communities, move to smarter attribution, and durable trust will compound while everyone else waits for “clarity.”