In partnership with

Back-to-back years with >70% or higher prediction scores.

Not too shabby.

Are predictions harder or easier now?

We have more data, yet things are more unpredictable than ever.

The rapid AI boom—driven by advances like vibe coding and Claude Code—is transforming markets, businesses, and daily life at an unprecedented pace, creating uncertainty for SaaS and other industries

While this explosion is real…

I do think some of the doom and gloom and stock market SaaS correction is an overreaction. More on that below.

The booms and bust cycles since 2000 seem to only be bigger - the rate of change in tech and markets is only compounding and the pace of change comes with it.

Things We Got Right For 2025

• Affiliate is no longer the side dish - its the main course Affiliate is quietly becoming a core growth engine: since 2021, U.S. affiliate spend has grown nearly 50% to about 14% CAGR—roughly 2x overall ecommerce—now driving ~9–10% of U.S. online sales and 15–20% for brands that lean in.

• Trusted Content is King - In 2025, the mix finally started matching that shift: budgets moved away from blunt coupon/cashback toward higher-intent partners—card-linked offers, CTV, niche communities (Substack, Reddit, podcasts), and influencer-led content—pushing affiliate further up the funnel and closer to brand marketing.

• Affiliate done right improves LLM rank and AI position - AI is now the accelerant on top: the same trusted editorial and comparison content powering affiliate programs is increasingly what large models surface in ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity, and other LLMs, meaning winning partners and quality content now also wins share of AI-driven recommendation traffic.

16 Predictions for 😉 2026

Part 1 of 2.

1) In person events (IRL = In Real Life) will become even more important and only increase in attendance and popularity. 🤝 

As Artifical Intelligence increases the desire for genuine human intelligence will increase.

We are already seeing experiences, face time with other people, and conferences gain in popularity and value.

According to Business Market Insights, North America’s events market alone is projected to grow from $322 billion in 2022 to about $618 billion by 2028 (a 11.5% CAGR). 

IRL events aren’t just ‘back’ – they’re compounding.

Think about the growth since the pandemic of live events as well.

The in‑person events market is growing around 10–12% per year, which means global spend on live events could roughly double by 2030, and US conference and trade‑show attendance should sit 10–20% above 2019 levels within the next 3–5 years. That’s hundreds of millions more in‑person touch points every year, not fewer.

Retreats, exclusive experiences, private dinners, and communities are something to continue to keep an eye on. More curated and intimate events are spinning off and focus with the right communities seem to be even more powerful and valuable.

2) People will opt out of tech and AI more than ever 🚪 

Not to be a “Debbie Downer,” but I think some of the technology challenges limits fatigue and fear is ok to address.

400,000 people will leave tech in 2026 - up from 250-300k (the typical transition from tech to non tech each year).

It’s worth naming the shadow side of all this change too.

The pace of AI and platform shifts is creating real anxiety and burnout, and it’s showing up in quiet exits from tech—especially among elder millennials, as Katelin Holloway recently predicted.

I tip my cap to Katelyn (I had the pleasure working out of the same offices as her at a VC backed startup in SF) for her courage calling out what is a real issue and shift.

Paraphrasing it here:

• Elder millennials in tech are likely to “quietly retire” in 2026—not via layoffs, but through steady, low‑drama exits.

• They’re hitting midlife (kids, aging parents, changing bodies and energy) just as careers were supposed to pay off, but stock, housing, and stability often didn’t materialize.

• A major AI platform shift is widening the gap between those eager to fully retool and those only using it incrementally, raising the cognitive and emotional load at work.

• For a tired cohort questioning the ROI of constant grind, the incentive to reinvent themselves at “platform speed” is low—so many will choose more grounded, IRL paths (small businesses, trades, consulting, passion projects).

• This isn’t just exit fatigue; it’s a generational life stage colliding with a tech inflection point, quietly reshaping who stays in tech, who leaves, and what “career success” means next.

“So many will choose something else.” — OOF that hits home.

My hope here is that those in tech, private sector, Venture, PE, and those in Small Business and government can think through ways to enable workers and entrepreneurs across various sectors can guide people that want to get in, and support those that want to get out.

There are solutions now but I appreciate her making it a topic of conversation.

AI Execs are leaving due to safety concerns

Here is a cautionary tale that were seeing more of - key AI execs leaving and not for good reasons…

One a positive note these other industries need a new wave of talent and a new generation to engage and take the baton in the more IRL and offline world.

3) Hard assets will continue to increase in value

Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil, Land…Bitcoin (yes I would consider it a digital variant of a hard asset).

Ray Dalio, Raoul Paul are not the only ones agreeing with this thesis but institutional investors are on board.

Bank of America commodity strategists – “Soon, all commodity charts will look like gold,” and have turned decisively bullish on energy, metals, and real assets as the defining contrarian trade of 2026 after a decade of neglect.

Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Wellington, others on real estate – Several houses argue that repriced real estate and private infrastructure should benefit from easing rates, higher replacement costs, and inflation‑linked cash flows, making them attractive real assets over the next cycle..

4) Tech sector profit/EPS continues to perform

• Tech profit machines are not slowing down; they’re concentrating.

  • The Magnificent 7 are still expected to grow earnings at roughly 20–30% a year, even as the rest of the market grinds along.

• The driver isn’t just revenue growth; it’s AI‑driven operating leverage.

  • As agents and automation move from demos into real workflows, the companies that systematically replace manual work with AI will see the biggest margin expansion.

• For everyone outside the Mag 7, this is the playbook: don’t chase “AI spend,” chase AI‑verified efficiency.

  • Investors and boards will reward SaaS businesses that can prove lower CAC, higher LTV, and better retention per headcount.

• That’s exactly where partner and affiliate marketing shine in 2026: capital‑light, performance‑tied distribution that compounds the margin gains AI creates, instead of adding more headcount or paid media bloat.

Estimated profit/EPS growth

• Apple (AAPL): 20% growth

• Microsoft (MSFT): 20% growth

• Alphabet (GOOGL): 20% growth

• Amazon (AMZN): 20% growth

• Meta (META): 20% growth

• Nvidia (NVDA): 25% growth

• Tesla (TSLA): 30% growth

AI efficiency increased profit will continue with agents coming into play more over time.

5) GDP will grow 5.5%

But Why You Ask?

• AI is already showing up in the macro data: AI‑related capex contributed roughly 1 percentage point to U.S. real GDP growth in early 2025, accounting for a large share of total growth.

• Major houses like Goldman Sachs and McKinsey see AI adding roughly 1.5 percentage points to annual U.S. productivity growth, with automation potentially boosting productivity by 0.5–3.4 points a year over the next decade.

• Layer on macro tailwinds: three expected Fed cuts (~75 bps) plus a housing pickup, with residential investment rising from ~4% of GDP toward 4.5–5%.

• That implies housing starts moving from the 1.3–1.4 million range toward 1.6–1.7 million, and home prices growing a steady 3–4% annually—strong enough to drive construction and spending without reigniting runaway inflation.

• Reshoring and friend‑shoring are another quiet growth engine: moving production home and to allies can add roughly 0.5–1.0 percentage point to annual GDP, driven by new factories, hundreds of thousands of jobs, and up to about $200 billion in extra output in sectors like manufacturing and pharma.

• Smarter, faster permitting is the force multiplier. McKinsey estimates $1.1–$1.5 trillion of infrastructure CapEx is stuck in federal queues, with delays holding back $100–$140 billion in returns each year and an estimated $1.7–$2.4 trillion in cumulative GDP.

How can AI power your income?

Ready to transform artificial intelligence from a buzzword into your personal revenue generator

HubSpot’s groundbreaking guide "200+ AI-Powered Income Ideas" is your gateway to financial innovation in the digital age.

Inside you'll discover:

• A curated collection of 200+ profitable opportunities spanning content creation, e-commerce, gaming, and emerging digital markets—each vetted for real-world potential

• Step-by-step implementation guides designed for beginners, making AI accessible regardless of your technical background

• Cutting-edge strategies aligned with current market trends, ensuring your ventures stay ahead of the curve

Download your guide today and unlock a future where artificial intelligence powers your success. Your next income stream is waiting.

Get Your Guide

6) IPOs will increase by 28%

• In 2025, the U.S. IPO market saw about 347 IPOs, a 54% increase over 2024

• In 2026 we estimate the following companies to do public and a 28% increase

  • OpenAI

  • SpaceX

  • Databricks

  • Anthropic

  • Canva

  • Revolut

Ok, but why does this matter?

• Massive new SaaS spend and standard setting. OpenAI/Anthropic/Databricks IPOs mean tens of billions in fresh capital aimed at enterprise AI adoption, data platforms, and infra; that money will flow into downstream SaaS ecosystems, marketplaces, and partner integrations.

• More platform “taxes,” more need for leverage. As these firms harden their ecosystems, expect higher effective platform costs (API, data, infra) and more gatekeeping, which makes partner/affiliate channels attractive because they are performance‑based and capital‑light compared with paid media.

• Explosive demand for integration partners. Databricks, OpenAI, Anthropic, Canva, and Revolut all depend on third‑party apps, data sources, and implementation partners; post‑IPO, investor pressure to show ecosystem revenue will likely increase MDF, rev‑share programs, and partner incentives.

• Category creation tailwinds for B2B SaaS. SpaceX and OpenAI going public together is essentially a global billboard for “AI + data + infra,” which will legitimize adjacent SaaS categories (observability, security, governance, workflow), giving strong partner programs an easier story to tell to CFOs and boards.

• More scrutiny on measurable growth. Once these names are public, every AI‑adjacent SaaS will be compared to them on efficiency and go‑to‑market productivity; partner and affiliate programs that can show lower CAC, higher LTV, and incremental revenue will become a board‑level lever, not a side tactic.

7) Affiliate marketing will grow ~18% in 2026

U.S. affiliate spend grew ~50% from 2021 to 2024, reaching $13.6B and driving 9–10% of all E-commerce sales—about 15–20% for brands that really lean in. Projections show U.S. affiliate investment climbing from roughly $12B in 2025 to $13–14B in 2026, a high‑teens growth clip that still outpaces overall E-commerce.

Why? Because trust is the scarce resource. Buyers increasingly rely on third‑party voices—publishers, creators, communities, and influencers—to validate what brands say, and affiliate/partner programs are the cleanest way to pay those trusted guides on performance instead of pouring more dollars into low‑trust ads.

We live in a trust gap so..Trust is the new currency…

The same logic applies to B2B SaaS Partner Marketing and its growing faster

B2B affiliate and partner programs are no longer niche. B2B affiliate participation grew about 17% in 2025, driven largely by SaaS and enterprise tech.

For many SaaS companies, affiliate/partner channels now contribute roughly 10–20% of MRR, with some specialized tools seeing up to 50% of revenue touched by partners.

This maps directly to the same trust gap: B2B buyers say they trust peers, communities, and independent reviews far more than vendor claims, and they rely heavily on G2/TrustRadius, Slack communities, and peer recommendations to build their shortlists.

Partner and affiliate programs in SaaS are just a structured way to fund those trusted sources on performance—whether that’s agencies, consultants, creators, or integration partners—rather than shoving more budget into low‑trust outbound.

As SaaS ecosystems mature, leading vendors (Microsoft, Salesforce, major clouds) already drive the majority of their revenue through partners, with partners often making $6–7 for every $1 of platform revenue.

It’s good to be a B2B SaaS Partner if you do it right.

Predictions 1–7 all point in the same direction: partner marketing is moving from “nice to have” to the spine of efficient growth in a noisy, AI-soaked market. Affiliates act more like strategic operators, not coupon sites; creators and communities become your best-performing channels; buyers trust peers and experts over ads; and brands that build real partner ecosystems win on CAC, LTV, and resilience when budgets get tight.

From here, we’ll zoom out: in the next set of predictions, (dropping tomorrow morning for a special bonus edition) we’ll get into where the money is flowing (PE/VC, IPO windows), how SaaS actually fares in an AI “drawdown,” how agents reshape execution, and what the OpenAI vs. “everyone else” battle means for your stack and strategy.